My Model says “It Just Means More” in the SEC
This week sees the most significant College Football matchup over the 2020 season thus far, a rematch of the 2018 National Championship Game between #2 Alabama vs. #3 Georgia. These two SEC rivals are fighting for not only conference, but national dominance. Both teams are also in the Top Ten within my Program Prestige Score Model, along with fellow rivals LSU and Auburn. With this weekend being the last to only feature three of the Power Five conferences playing, the SEC could not have asked for a better game as a lead-in.
With this game being at the forefront this weekend, I thought this would be a good time to begin a Conference-by-Conference analysis on my College Football scoring model.
Given the matchup, I will start with discussing why the SEC is the top conference in my model.
1. Revenues
Ten of the Conference’s 14 teams are in the Top 25 for the Yearly Revenues football brings in, including Five of the Top Nine. The SEC brings in almost $10 Million more per school compared to the Big Ten in second ($60.35 Million vs. $50.61 Million).
2. Postseason Success
The SEC has had more representatives in the New Year Six / BCS Bowl games over the past ten years (23), including the only conference that has had two teams represented in the same College Football Playoff.
3. They Spend the Most Money
SEC schools have shown the ability to spend the most money on Football, starting with their Assistant Coaches, averaging $800,000 more to their assistants per year.
SEC schools pay a total of $8 Million more to their Football Head Coaches compared to the Big Ten.
Finally, the stadiums SEC schools have built are the largest in the country, able to hold an average of 7,500 more fans compared to the Big Ten.
4. They Win the Most, especially over Quality Opponents
The SEC have the highest winning percentage out of the ten conferences (61%), including 84 more wins over ranked opponents over the last ten years.
5. Voters View the SEC as the Best
Before a game is even played, the SEC has a strong reputation amongst the voters in the AP Poll, with over 66 appearances in the Preseason Top 25 over the last ten years.
The Conference has shown it can maintain the early season status with 58 appearances in the Final Top 25 poll as well.
6. SEC Network
The additional revenues brought to the conference from the introduction of the SEC Network in 2014 have helped to close the conference’s gap to the Big Ten in Conference Revenue Share scores.
Finally, here are how the 14 SEC schools performed in my model, through the 2009–2018 seasons.
Alabama Crimson Tide
- Most Revenue from Football in SEC.
- Most National Championships Overall and in Last Ten Years
- Most Total Wins, Wins over Top 25 Opponents and NFL Draft Picks
LSU Tigers
- Gained One Spot compared to 2008–2017 Ranking
- Winning Percentage at 79% over last ten years
- Second-highest AVG Assistant Coach Salary Pool in the country
- Stadium Capacity at over 100,000
Georgia Bulldogs
- Gained Two Spots compared to 2008–2017 Ranking
- Highest Percentage of Dept. Revenue from Football — 73%
- Dept. spends over $2 Million per Year in Overall Recruiting Expenses
- Averaged over 3 Million Viewers per Game from 2014–2018
Auburn Tigers
- Highest AVG Assistant Coach Salary Pool in the SEC and FBS overall
- Top Five in Dept. Overall Recruiting Expenses
- Top Ten in Head Coach Salary
Florida Gators
- Highest Conference Revenue Share received in SEC
- Seventh-most Social Media Followers in FBS
- Second-most NFL Draft Picks in last ten years
Tennessee Volunteers
- Dropped One Spot compared to 2008–2017 Ranking
- Second largest Football Revenue Score increase in the SEC
- Highest AVG Dept. Recruiting Expenses in FBS
- Top Five in Stadium Capacity in the SEC and FBS overall
Texas A&M Aggies
- Largest Stadium Capacity in the SEC
- Largest On-Field Score Increase compared to 2008–2017 model
- Increase of Five Wins and NFL Draft Picks compared to 2008–2017 model
Arkansas Razorbacks
- Dropped One Spot compared to 2008–2017 Ranking
- Third Largest Conference Revenue Share in the SEC
- Increase of $140,000 in Football Revenue compared to 2008–2017
South Carolina Gamecocks
- Dropped Two Spots compared to 2008–2017 Ranking
- Lowest Increase in Football Revenue in the SEC
- Lost five National Broadcast Appearances compared to 2008–2017
Ole Miss Rebels
- Dropped One Spot compared to 2008–2017 Ranking
- Increase of $300,000 AVG Football Revenue compared to 2008–2017
- Lowest Conference Revenue Share in the SEC (Bowl Ban in 2017, 2018)
- Decrease of Four Wins Overall; Three against Top 25 Opponents
Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Largest increase in Overall Rankings (+5) in the SEC
- Increase of Four National Broadcast Appearances compared to 2008–2017
- Increase of Four Wins Overall; Five NFL Draft Picks
Missouri Tigers
- Dropped Three Spots compared to the 2008–2017 Ranking
- Largest Decrease in On-Field Score in the SEC
- Decrease of Four National Broadcast Appearances vs. 2008–2017
Kentucky Wildcats
- Third Largest On-Field Score increase compared to the 2008–2017 model
- Increases of Three Wins Overall, Three over Top 25 Opponents and Four NFL Draft Picks
- Lowest Percentage of Dept. Revenue from Football in the SEC
Vanderbilt Commodores
- Dropped Two Spots compared to the 2008–2017 Ranking
- Lowest Program Score Increase in the SEC compared to 2008–2017 rank
- Program and Conference Revenue Share scores are the only categories where Vanderbilt is not last in the Conference
