How the Big Ten can reach the SEC on College Football’s Pedestal?

After months of headlines, college football returned to the majority of the Midwest last weekend as the Big Ten kicked off their nine-game conference-only schedule.

While no school will be allowed to host fans (outside of family members) this season, college football fans celebrated the conference’s return and the conference was already the top headlines for the weekend due to Justin Fields’ performance for Ohio State and Indiana’s upset of #8 Penn State.

The conference’s return was important for the sport as a whole, especially in the context of my Program Prestige Model, where the Big Ten has seven teams in my Top 25 Rankings (covering the 2009–2018 seasons) and the league’s biggest rivalry representing the #2 and #3 teams respectively.

However, they are a clear second behind the SEC in many of the metrics and variables featured in my model. So, given the shortened 2020 season and expected losses of revenue across the entire conference, how can the Big Ten close the gap to the SEC in terms of superiority within future rankings?

Here are three ways the Big Ten can do so in 2020 —

1. Increase Postseason Success by Winning Bowl Games

Winning a Bowl Game would add a minimum of .63 points to each school’s On-Field Score, not including the additional points for appearing in a New Year’s Six game or beating a Top 25 ranked opponent in said bowl game.

Over the last ten seasons (2009–2018), the Big Ten has only won the Bowl Challenge Cup once (2017). The conference has only the fourth-best winning percentage in bowl games over my model’s range.

The conference can establish momentum in the new decade with a winning bowl record, something that only happened three times in the 2010s.

2. Increase Assistants’ Pay

According to my model, each $61,000 added to the Football Assistant Coaches Poll would add a full point to a school’s Program Score. The Big Ten is currently fourth amongst all CFB Conferences in terms of the AVG Assistants’ Salary Pool, but only behind second-place Big 12 by an estimated $165,000, i.e. about 2.5 potential points.

3. Get Games on National Broadcasts

In my model, the impact of a Nationally Televised Game leads to almost 1.5 points for each school’s Brand Score. Yes, the conference already holds the top spot for the most national broadcasts over the ten-year range measured and they have their own network to fill with game content.

However, the impact of being nationally televised is a strong enough indicator of a program’s brand to where the conference should utilize their ESPN and FOX partnerships more during a shortened season. The Pac-12 is the only Power Five conference playing a shorter 2020 season than the Big Ten.

In addition, the conference’s commitment to having Friday games this season opens a potential open time slot with “minimal” competition that ESPN and FOX/FS1 are likely to be thrilled to fill with Big Ten Football.

In short, having four games on the Big Ten Network like they did over opening weekend cannot become the norm this season if they wish to gain ground on the SEC.

Finally, below is a team-by-team recap of how each Big Ten program performed within my most current model ranking —

Ohio State

• Highest On-Field and Brand categorical scores in the Big Ten.
• Largest Program Score increase compared to 2008–2017 in the Big Ten.
• Second-most NFL Draft Picks selected in FBS.
• Largest Social Media Follower base in the Big Ten (approx. 3.5 Million).

Michigan

• Highest Scores in Four individual categorical scores in the Big Ten.
• Largest Football Revenue and On-Field Score (3–9 in ’08 to 10–3 in ’18) increases in the Big Ten compared to 2008–2017.
• Largest Stadium Capacity in FBS and the Big Ten.

Iowa

• Second highest Brand Score in the Big Ten.
• 52 National Broadcast Appearances is the second-most in the Big Ten.

Michigan State

• One of four Big Ten teams to score in the Top 10 in multiple categories within FBS.
• Second-most Top 25 victories in the Big Ten.
• Third Highest Winning Percentage in the Big Ten (69%).

Penn State

• Third Highest AVG Attendance in FBS and the Big Ten.
• Second-most NFL Draft Picks in the Big Ten (39).
• Second-largest Stadium Capacity in FBS and the Big Ten.

Nebraska

• Largest Conference Revenue Share Score increase in the Big Ten compared to 2008–2017 (Achieved full Big Ten Conference Revenue Share in 2017).
• Second largest On-Field Score decrease in the Big Ten compared to 2008–2017 (9–4 in ’08 vs. 4–8 in ‘18).

Wisconsin

• Second largest Football Revenue Score increase in the Big Ten compared to 2008–2017.
• Second highest winning percentage in Big Ten (76%).
• Only Big Ten school to make a Bowl Appearance every year during 2009–2018 range.

Minnesota

• One of four Big Ten teams to score in the Top 10 in multiple categories within FBS.
• Ranked 12th in the Big Ten in Overall Total Score increase compared to 2008–2017.

Illinois

• Second-largest ranking increase in the Big Ten, despite only the 11th highest increase in Overall Total Score compared to 2008–2017.
• Lowest Winning Percentage in the Big Ten (35%).

Northwestern

• Largest increase in ranking compared to 2008–2017 from a Power Five conference program (Up Seven Spots)
• Tied for the Largest Brand Score increase in the Big Ten (Purdue).
• Increase of Five National Broadcast appearances compared to 2008–2017.
• Lowest Social Media Follower base in the Big Ten (<100,000).

Indiana

• Lowest Head Coach Salary AVG and Second-lowest AVG Assistant Coach Salary Pool in the Big Ten (Rutgers).
• Second-lowest Football Revenue Score increase compared to 2008–2017.
• Only Big Ten school to not have a Bowl Win in 2009–2018.

Purdue

• Tied for the Largest Brand Score increase in the Big Ten (Northwestern).
• Third-lowest On-Field Score in FBS from a Power Five Conference program.
• Lowest Percentage of Overall Athletics Revenue coming from Football in the Big Ten (30%).
• Increase of Five National Broadcast appearances compared to 2008–2017.

Maryland

• Only Big Ten school to fall more than one ranking spot compared to 2008–2017 ranking.
• School is not expected to receive full Big Ten Conference Revenue Share score for the next decade, due to current loans on future years.

Rutgers

• Lowest Brand Score in FBS from a Power Five Conference program.
• Largest decrease in On-Field Score within the Big Ten (8–5 in ’08 vs 1–11 in ‘18).
• Only Big Ten program to lose Total Score points compared to 2008–2017.